Predicting dangerous heat events for spectacled flying-foxes

Project start date: 01/04/2024
Project end date: 31/03/2027
NESP funding: $512,243 (GST-exclusive)

Spectacled flying-foxes play important roles in tropical forest ecosystems as key pollinators and seed dispersers. In Australia, their distribution spans across the Wet Tropics region and the rainforests of Cape York in northern Queensland.

Spectacled flying-fox populations have declined significantly due to historical habitat loss. But their most pressing and immediate threat is mass mortality associated with extreme heat. An extreme heatwave in 2018 resulted in the death of approximately one-third of the population. Since that event, spectacled flying-foxes have been listed as Endangered.

Although extreme heat events are rare phenomena in the Australian Wet Tropics region, their frequency and intensity have notably increased in the last decades.

Spectacled flying foxes. Photo: rollier CC BY-NC 4.0.

Through this project, researchers aim to better understand how heat waves affect flying-fox populations, and to forecast and identify the specific roosting sites where flying-foxes will be most vulnerable during high-risk heat events. This information will help provide actionable guidance on the most effective interventions to mitigate the impact of these extreme events.

Interventions might include misting systems, roost-exclusion measures, and targeted revegetation efforts designed to alter the thermal environment and enhance the species’ chances of survival during extreme heat events.

Key research areas

To reduce the impacts of extreme heat on spectacled flying-foxes, this project is:

• mapping heat conditions at key roosts to identify when and where flying-foxes are most at risk
• combining weather forecasts and physiological models to predict heat-related mortality at specific sites
• working with Traditional Owners, local governments and managers to guide practical interventions and decision-making.

Pathway to impact

This project will:

• improve preparedness for dangerous heat events by providing clear predictions of when, where and how spectacled flying-foxes are most at risk
• support targeted, more effective on-ground responses through clear guidance on priority actions during heat events
• provide tools and approaches that can be applied elsewhere to support climate-adaptation planning for threatened species.